Peak of the Outbreak
By: dr. Syahrizal Syarif
Mathematicians and biostatisticians usually make predictions when the COVID-19 outbreak will end based on the number of new cases that appear sequentially in a time series, using the nature of the case addition speed is also possible to estimate the total number of cases at any given time.
This estimate is used primarily to prepare the required resource requirements, both the total of ventilators, isolation rooms, the amount of personal protective equipment, the quantity of beds for Referral Hospitals for both serious and severe positive patients, Special Hospitals for patients with mild and moderate symptoms, as well as the Quarantine Center to treat ODP (People under Monitoring) and PDP (Patient under Monitoring) waiting for the diagnostic results that until now still take 3 days for Java and 8-10 days for outside Java.
Before the outbreak ends, it is important to predict when the outbreak will reach the peak – like it’s cloudy before the rain – a sign that the outbreak will end. The most important factor influencing the peak of the outbreak is how effective the intervention is.
When Wuhan went into lockdown on January 23, 2020, I thought this measure would be effective. Definitely, this is followed by strict implementation of staying home, project of 2,600 beds for COVID-19 Special Hospitals, active door-to-door surveillance on 9 million residents, establishing a Quarantine Center for thousands of beds for the ODP and PDP even mild confirmed cases, employing 40,000 health workers of assistance from 29 provinces and 1,400 army medical personnel.
A total of 38,000 health workers in Wuhan who work day and night is not enough, because those handled are not only ones at hospital but also at the Quarantine Center and the working surveillance officers monitor every home every day.
An immensely strict intervention strategy – made me dare to predict on January 27, 2020 that the outbreak in China will end in early May 2020. So far, the outbreak in China is under control but not over yet as there are still reports of new cases.
The government, based on Indonesia’s Intelligence Agency/BIN’s prediction, estimates that the peak of the outbreak will occur 60 days after the first case was reported on March 2, 2020 – meaning in April 2020. This, again, can only be estimated if intervention in the form of the Large-Scale Social Restrictions/PSBB is currently running effectively.
For comparison, the data from several countries can be seen below: the number of new cases that day and how far the peak of the outbreak is calculated since the first day of reporting. These data vary in line with the effectiveness of the interventions carried out by each country.
1. South Korea – 851 cases – peak day 13
2, Switzerland – 1,394 cases – peak day 17
3, Australia – 537 cases – peak day 21
4, Spain 8,195 cases – peak day 21
5, Philippines – 358 cases – peak day 23
6, Belgium – 1850 cases – peak day 24
7, Thailand – 188 cases – peak day 25
8, France – 23,060 cases – peak day 27
9, Malaysia – 235 cases – peak day 28
10, UK – 5,903 cases – peak day 29
11, Germany – 6,813 cases – peak day 32
12, Saudi Arabia – 253 cases – peak day 32
12, China – 3,884 cases – peak day 34
13, Italia – 3,186 cases – peak day 36
14, Iran – 3,186 cases – peak day 45
15, Singapore – 120 cases – peak day 48
16, USA – 34,196 cases – peak day 49
17. Indonesia’s peak prediction – 60 days? PSBB intervention……